Antiguo 14-Jan-2010, 02:00
Fecha de Ingreso: November-2008
Mensajes: 31
Predeterminado Previsión de los analistas del buscador chino Baidu ante el anuncio de salida de Google de China

From Reuters:

Chinese search engine Baidu Inc <BIDU.O> shares jumped 16.8 percent to $451.50 in premarket trade on Wednesday as rival Google Inc <GOOG.O> threatened to quit operations in China, warnings it would no longer tolerate strict censorshop of its search engine.
Indeed, Deutsche Bank and UBS have already upgraded their ratings on the Google lookalike to “buy” in the wake of the news while Merrill Lynch is advising clients to “buy” as are Citigroup, RBC Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs.

Baidu would benefit most from Google’s departure. The Chinese search engine market is a duopoly with Baidu and Google together accounting for 90% of revenue and 95% traffic market share (Baidu itself has 62% and 74% respectively). Baidu would emerge as the dominant player with even more bargaining power with its customers. And even if Google can successfully solve this problem and continue its presence in China, in our view Baidu will still benefit incrementally from advertisers’ concerns over spending on

We upgrade Baidu to Buy from Neutral and PT from US$380 to US$523. This incorporates a 50% probability weighting to our new base case valuation of $453 (assuming Google continues to operate in China) and 50% weighting to our bullcase valuation of $593 (assuming Google closes its Chinese operations).
Deutsche Bank:

Issues between Google China and Beijing, initially pointed out by Mark Natkin of Marbridge Consulting at our Access China conf, seem to be coming to a head with Google’s public descriptions of the hacking of its accounts, and possible plans to reduce/remove staff from China. We upgrade Baidu on both val grounds, and in the belief that most scenarios arising from this tension are positive for the co.
As the leading search engine with a well-established nationwide sales and distribution network and a brand among advertisers, Baidu stands to benefit most from a major scale-down, if not a shutdown of, which is estimated to have approximately 25% of market revenue share and 20% of traffic share.

Assuming Baidu will take share from 2H10 and end up with 78% of a slightly smaller search market in 2011, up from ~65% in 2009, its revenues in 2010E and 2011E would increase by 0.7% and 2%, respectively, and the corresponding EPS would potentially increase by 0.8% and 2.2% (see Table 1). Baidu’s DCF-based fair value would be up to US$505 (10% discount rate, 28% 2011E-15E FCF CAGR, 5% terminal growth). In our view, the upside should come more from a budget increase by advertisers rather than an increase in the number of advertisers given that most advertisers on Google would have been clients on Baidu.

Smaller search engines like those run by Sohu, Tencent and Netease could gain some ground too in this case. However, we don’t expect them to get close to Baidu’s market share due to Baidu’s advantages in sales network and branding, as well as content and user behavior data.
Meanwhile, RBC asks if Baidu will become the One Search Platform to Rule The Middle Kingdom?

We remind investors that media in China is State-controlled and the government has next to no incentive to accede to Google’s wishes. Hence, in our view the most likely conclusion is that if Google were to insist on the ability to unfilter search results, it may eventually be banned in China. The financial implications for Google are minimal, as we believe revenue from China accounts for around 1% of total. The implications for BIDU are more profound should Google withdraw from the Chinese market:

Opportunity to pick up Google’s wallet share: Although third-party research suggests Google’s search query share is around 30%, we believe share of advertisers’ search budgets may actually be around 20%. Hence, Baidu has the opportunity over the longer term to pick up revenue that is about one-fourth its current size, and top- and bottom-line estimates for the out-year may rise by 25%, all things being equal. TAC payouts to affiliates should also moderate and help to drive additional margin improvement.
And finally Goldman:

Should Google withdraw from China, we believe it may be in the interests of advertisers, consumers, and the government for at least one viable search engine to emerge as an alternative to Baidu. Tencent previously relied on Google for search but is currently developing its own search engine. We assume Tencent is best-placed to become a Baidu alternative given its brand, reach, and R&D skills. Alibaba Group inherited Yahoo! China’s search service, which we assume it will re-launch under a new brand in the future. We assume Alibaba Group is also well-placed to become a Baidu alternative given subsidiary Taobao’s existing traffic and search technology. We do not expect another foreign search engine such as Bing to gain substantial traction since we assume a Google withdrawal from China could leave local search affiliates and advertisers skeptical of cooperating with foreign search engines in future.
As for Google, the near term financial impact of its decision is minimal, according to Citigroup.

From a GOOG financial perspective, Mahaney estimates that China could account for approximately $300- $350MM (1.5%) of the company’s 2010 total revenue and perhaps 1% of its 2010 profits, assuming Google hasn’t achieved the scale profitability in China that it has achieved in other markets. Google has faced significant market share and legal/public policy challenges in the China market over the last few years. He believes that from an investment perspective these challenges have significantly limited financial expectations for Google in China. Thus, he views this development as a modest – not a material – negative development for GOOG.
FT Alphaville One Search Platform To Rule The Middle Kingdom? (updated)
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analistas, baidu, buscador, buscador chino, citi, citigroup, deutsche bank, goldman, google, internet china, merrill, rbc, ubs


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