La CIA ha tenido la gentileza de publicar el trabajo de análisis que han realizado y en el que nos explican su visión de como será el mundo en el 2020 “Mapping The Global Future: Report of the Natinonal Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project” . El documento lo podéis ver en HTML o PDF.
En este interesante estudio, como todo análisis que se precie se recogen 4 posibles futuros escenarios:
1- Davos World. ” el mundo de Davos ”
“..Under this scenario, the Asian giants as well as other developing states continue to outpace most Western economies, and their huge, consumer-driven domestic markets become a major focus for global business and technology. Many boats are lifted, but some founder. Africa does better than one might think, while some medium-sized emerging countries are squeezed. Western powers, including the United States, have to contend with job insecurity despite the many benefits to be derived from an expanding global economy. “
2- Pax Americana. ” Paz Americana ”
“Under this scenario, key alliances and relationships with Europe and Asia undergo change. US-European cooperation is renewed, including on the Middle East. There are new security arrangements in Asia, but the United States still does the heavy lifting. The scenario also suggests that Washington has to struggle to assert leadership in an increasingly diverse, complex, and fast-paced world.”
3- A New Caliphate. “Un nuevo Califato ”
“Under this scenario, a new Caliphate is proclaimed and manages to advance a powerful counter ideology that has widespread appeal. It is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Bin Ladin to a family relative in 2020. He recounts the struggles of the Caliph in trying to wrest control from traditional regimes and the conflict and confusion which ensue both within the Muslim world and outside between Muslims and the United States, Europe, Russia and China. While the Calipha’s success in mobilizing support varies, places far outside the Muslim core in the Middle East”in Africa and Asia”are convulsed as a result of his appeals. The scenario ends before the Caliph is able to establish both spiritual and temporal authority over a territory.”
4- Cycle of Fear. ” El ciclo del Miedo ”
“..As the scenario progresses, the cycle of fear originating with WMD-laden terrorist attacks has gotten out of hand”to the benefit of the arms dealers, who appear to be engaged in lucrative deals. However, fear begets fear. The draconian measures increasingly implemented by governments to stem proliferation and guard against terrorism also have the arms dealers beginning to run scared. In all of this, globalization may be the real victim.”
Aún no me podido leer todo el informe (unos 123 páginas), pero por lo que he podido ojear parece bastante entretenido y francamente bien presentado.